def fit(self, y_train, fh=None, X_train=None):
"""Fit to training data.
Parameters
----------
y_train : pd.Series
Target time series to which to fit the forecaster.
fh : int, list or np.array, optional (default=None)
The forecasters horizon with the steps ahead to to predict.
X_train : pd.DataFrame, optional (default=None)
Exogenous variables are ignored
Returns
-------
self : returns an instance of self.
"""
sp = check_sp(self.sp)
if sp > 1 and not self.deseasonalise:
warn("`sp` is ignored when `deseasonalise`=False")
if self.deseasonalise:
self.deseasonaliser_ = Deseasonalizer(sp=self.sp,
model="multiplicative")
y_train = self.deseasonaliser_.fit_transform(y_train)
# fit exponential smoothing forecaster
# find theta lines: Theta lines are just SES + drift
super(ThetaForecaster, self).fit(y_train, fh=fh)
self.smoothing_level_ = self._fitted_forecaster.params[
"smoothing_level"]
# compute trend
self.trend_ = self._compute_trend(y_train)
self._is_fitted = True
return self
def test_deseasonalised_values(sp):
t = Deseasonalizer(sp=sp)
t.fit(y_train)
a = t.transform(y_train)
r = seasonal_decompose(y_train, period=sp)
b = y_train - r.seasonal
np.testing.assert_array_equal(a.values, b.values)
def test_deseasonalised_values(sp):
transformer = Deseasonalizer(sp=sp)
transformer.fit(y_train)
actual = transformer.transform(y_train)
r = seasonal_decompose(y_train, period=sp)
expected = y_train - r.seasonal
np.testing.assert_array_equal(actual, expected)
def compute_expected_y_pred(y_train, fh):
# fitting
yt = y_train.copy()
t1 = Deseasonalizer(sp=12, model="multiplicative")
yt = t1.fit_transform(yt)
t2 = Detrender(PolynomialTrendForecaster(degree=1))
yt = t2.fit_transform(yt)
f = NaiveForecaster()
f.fit(yt, fh)
# predicting
y_pred = f.predict()
y_pred = t2.inverse_transform(y_pred)
y_pred = t1.inverse_transform(y_pred)
return y_pred
def test_pipeline():
y = load_airline()
y_train, y_test = temporal_train_test_split(y)
f = TransformedTargetForecaster([
("t1", Deseasonalizer(sp=12, model="multiplicative")),
("t2", Detrender(PolynomialTrendForecaster(degree=1))),
("f", NaiveForecaster())
])
fh = np.arange(len(y_test)) + 1
f.fit(y_train, fh)
actual = f.predict()
def compute_expected_y_pred(y_train, fh):
# fitting
yt = y_train.copy()
t1 = Deseasonalizer(sp=12, model="multiplicative")
yt = t1.fit_transform(yt)
t2 = Detrender(PolynomialTrendForecaster(degree=1))
yt = t2.fit_transform(yt)
f = NaiveForecaster()
f.fit(yt, fh)
# predicting
y_pred = f.predict()
y_pred = t2.inverse_transform(y_pred)
y_pred = t1.inverse_transform(y_pred)
return y_pred
expected = compute_expected_y_pred(y_train, fh)
np.testing.assert_array_equal(actual, expected)
def learn(series_data):
model = TransformedTargetForecaster([
("deseasonalise", Deseasonalizer(model="multiplicative", sp=7)),
("detrend", Detrender(forecaster=PolynomialTrendForecaster(degree=4))),
("forecast", PolynomialTrendForecaster(degree=4))
])
model.fit(series_data[:-2])
return model
class ThetaForecaster(ExponentialSmoothing):
"""
Theta method of forecasting.
The theta method as defined in [1]_ is equivalent to simple exponential
smoothing
(SES) with drift. This is demonstrated in [2]_.
The series is tested for seasonality using the test outlined in A&N. If
deemed
seasonal, the series is seasonally adjusted using a classical
multiplicative
decomposition before applying the theta method. The resulting forecasts
are then
reseasonalised.
In cases where SES results in a constant forecast, the theta forecaster
will revert
to predicting the SES constant plus a linear trend derived from the
training data.
Prediction intervals are computed using the underlying state space model.
Parameters
----------
smoothing_level : float, optional
The alpha value of the simple exponential smoothing, if the value is
set then
this will be used, otherwise it will be estimated from the data.
deseasonalise : bool, optional (default=True)
If True, data is seasonally adjusted.
sp : int, optional (default=1)
The number of observations that constitute a seasonal period for a
multiplicative deseasonaliser, which is used if seasonality is
detected in the
training data. Ignored if a deseasonaliser transformer is provided.
Default is
1 (no seasonality).
Attributes
----------
smoothing_level_ : float
The estimated alpha value of the SES fit.
drift_ : float
The estimated drift of the fitted model.
se_ : float
The standard error of the predictions. Used to calculate prediction
intervals.
References
----------
.. [1] `Assimakopoulos, V. and Nikolopoulos, K. The theta model: a
decomposition
approach to forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 16,
521-530,
2000.
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii
/S0169207000000662>`_
.. [2] `Hyndman, Rob J., and Billah, Baki. Unmasking the Theta method.
International J. Forecasting, 19, 287-290, 2003.
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii
/S0169207001001431>`_
"""
_fitted_param_names = ("initial_level", "smoothing_level")
def __init__(self, smoothing_level=None, deseasonalise=True, sp=1):
self.sp = sp
self.deseasonalise = deseasonalise
self.deseasonaliser_ = None
self.trend_ = None
self.smoothing_level_ = None
self.drift_ = None
self.se_ = None
super(ThetaForecaster, self).__init__(smoothing_level=smoothing_level,
sp=sp)
def fit(self, y_train, fh=None, X_train=None):
"""Fit to training data.
Parameters
----------
y_train : pd.Series
Target time series to which to fit the forecaster.
fh : int, list or np.array, optional (default=None)
The forecasters horizon with the steps ahead to to predict.
X_train : pd.DataFrame, optional (default=None)
Exogenous variables are ignored
Returns
-------
self : returns an instance of self.
"""
sp = check_sp(self.sp)
if sp > 1 and not self.deseasonalise:
warn("`sp` is ignored when `deseasonalise`=False")
if self.deseasonalise:
self.deseasonaliser_ = Deseasonalizer(sp=self.sp,
model="multiplicative")
y_train = self.deseasonaliser_.fit_transform(y_train)
# fit exponential smoothing forecaster
# find theta lines: Theta lines are just SES + drift
super(ThetaForecaster, self).fit(y_train, fh=fh)
self.smoothing_level_ = self._fitted_forecaster.params[
"smoothing_level"]
# compute trend
self.trend_ = self._compute_trend(y_train)
self._is_fitted = True
return self
def _predict(self, fh, X=None, return_pred_int=False, alpha=DEFAULT_ALPHA):
"""
Make forecasts.
Parameters
----------
fh : array-like
The forecasters horizon with the steps ahead to to predict.
Default is
one-step ahead forecast, i.e. np.array([1]).
Returns
-------
y_pred : pandas.Series
Returns series of predicted values.
"""
y_pred = super(ThetaForecaster, self)._predict(fh, X=X,
return_pred_int=False,
alpha=alpha)
# Add drift.
drift = self._compute_drift()
y_pred += drift
if self.deseasonalise:
y_pred = self.deseasonaliser_.inverse_transform(y_pred)
if return_pred_int:
pred_int = self.compute_pred_int(y_pred=y_pred, alpha=alpha)
return y_pred, pred_int
return y_pred
@staticmethod
def _compute_trend(y):
# Trend calculated through least squares regression.
coefs = fit_trend(y.values.reshape(1, -1), order=1)
return coefs[0, 0] / 2
def _compute_drift(self):
if np.isclose(self.smoothing_level_, 0.0):
# SES was constant, so revert to simple trend
drift = self.trend_ * self.fh
else:
# Calculate drift from SES parameters
n_timepoints = len(self._y)
drift = self.trend_ * (
self.fh
+ (1 - (
1 - self.smoothing_level_) ** n_timepoints) /
self.smoothing_level_
)
return drift
def _compute_pred_err(self, alphas):
"""
Get the prediction errors for the forecast.
"""
self.check_is_fitted()
n_timepoints = len(self._y)
self.sigma_ = np.sqrt(self._fitted_forecaster.sse / (n_timepoints - 1))
sem = self.sigma_ * np.sqrt(self._fh * self.smoothing_level_ ** 2 + 1)
errors = []
for alpha in alphas:
z = zscore(1 - alpha)
error = z * sem
errors.append(
pd.Series(error, index=self.fh.absolute(self.cutoff)))
return errors
def update(self, y_new, X_new=None, update_params=True):
super(ThetaForecaster, self).update(y_new, X_new=X_new,
update_params=update_params)
if update_params:
if self.deseasonalise:
y_new = self.deseasonaliser_.transform(y_new)
self.smoothing_level_ = self._fitted_forecaster.params[
"smoothing_level"]
self.trend_ = self._compute_trend(y_new)
return self
# In[126]:
model = PolynomialTrendForecaster(degree=1)
transformer = Detrender(model)
yt = transformer.fit_transform(train)
trendline = model.fit(train).predict(fh=-np.arange(len(train)))
plot_ys(train, trendline, yt, labels=['series', 'trend', 'detrended'])
# ### Pipelining
# In[130]:
forecaster = TransformedTargetForecaster([
("deseasonalise", Deseasonalizer(model="multiplicative", sp=12)),
("detrend", Detrender(forecaster=PolynomialTrendForecaster(degree=1))),
("forecast",
ReducedRegressionForecaster(regressor=regressor,
window_length=12,
strategy="recursive"))
])
forecaster.fit(train)
y_pred = forecaster.predict(fh)
plot_ys(train, test, y_pred, labels=["y_train", "y_test", "y_pred"])
smape_loss(test, y_pred)
# ## WORK IN PROGRESS
# ## Pipeline Tuning
def test_transform_inverse_transform_equivalence(sp, model):
t = Deseasonalizer(sp=sp, model=model)
t.fit(y_train)
yit = t.inverse_transform(t.transform(y_train))
np.testing.assert_array_equal(y_train.index, yit.index)
np.testing.assert_almost_equal(y_train.values, yit.values)
def test_inverse_transform_time_index(sp, model):
t = Deseasonalizer(sp=sp, model=model)
t.fit(y_train)
yit = t.inverse_transform(y_test)
np.testing.assert_array_equal(yit.index, y_test.index)
def test_transform_time_index(sp, model):
transformer = Deseasonalizer(sp=sp, model=model)
transformer.fit(y_train)
yt = transformer.transform(y_test)
np.testing.assert_array_equal(yt.index, y_test.index)