def market_test_vote(request):
bill = get_object_or_404(Bill, id = request.POST.get("bill", "0"))
prediction = int(request.POST.get("prediction", "0"))
market = bill.get_open_market(request.user)
if not market: return { }
from predictionmarket.models import Trade, TradingAccount
account = TradingAccount.get(request.user)
if prediction != 0:
# Buy shares in one of the outcomes.
try:
t = Trade.place(account, market.outcomes.get(owner_key = 1 if prediction == 1 else 0), 10)
except ValueError as e:
return { "error": str(e) }
else:
# Sell shares.
positions, pl = account.position_in_market(market)
for outcome in positions:
Trade.place(account, outcome, -positions[outcome]["shares"])
return { "vote": prediction }
def market_test_vote(request):
bill = get_object_or_404(Bill, id = request.POST.get("bill", "0"))
prediction = int(request.POST.get("prediction", "0"))
market = bill.get_open_market(request.user)
if not market: return { }
from predictionmarket.models import Trade, TradingAccount
account = TradingAccount.get(request.user)
if prediction != 0:
# Buy shares in one of the outcomes.
try:
t = Trade.place(account, market.outcomes.get(owner_key = 1 if prediction == 1 else 0), 10)
except ValueError as e:
return { "error": str(e) }
else:
# Sell shares.
positions, pl = account.position_in_market(market)
for outcome in positions:
Trade.place(account, outcome, -positions[outcome]["shares"])
return { "vote": prediction }
def handle(self, *args, **options):
bank = TradingAccount.get(User.objects.get(id=settings.PREDICTIONMARKET_BANK_UID))
bill_ct = ContentType.objects.get_for_model(Bill)
# For every bill, make a market for its next major step and close any other markets.
for bill in Bill.objects.filter(congress=settings.CURRENT_CONGRESS):
market_key = None # current market to open
market_name = None # name of the market to open
market_outcomes = None # dict of outcome names
market_close = { } # markets to close, key is market id and value is the key of the winning outcome
if bill.current_status in (BillStatus.introduced, BillStatus.referred, BillStatus.reported):
market_key = 0
market_name = "Will %s pass the %s?" % (bill.display_number, bill.originating_chamber)
market_outcomes = { 0: "No", 1: "Yes" }
market_close = { }
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.pass_over_house, BillStatus.pass_over_senate):
market_key = 1
market_name = "Will %s pass the %s?" % (bill.display_number, bill.opposite_chamber)
market_outcomes = { 0: "No", 1: "Yes" }
market_close = { 0: 1 } # originating chamber passed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.pass_back_house, BillStatus.pass_back_senate):
market_key = 2
market_name = "Will %s pass in identical form in the House and Senate?" % bill.display_number
market_outcomes = { 0: "No", 1: "Yes" }
market_close = { 0: 1, 1: 1 } # originating chamber passed, other chamber passed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.fail_originating_house, BillStatus.fail_originating_senate):
market_close = { 0: 0 } # originating chamber failed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.fail_second_house, BillStatus.fail_second_senate):
market_close = { 0: 1, 1: 0 } # originating chamber passed, second chamber failed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.passed_constamend, BillStatus.passed_concurrentres, BillStatus.passed_bill,
BillStatus.override_pass_over_house, BillStatus.override_pass_over_senate, BillStatus.vetoed_pocket,
BillStatus.vetoed_override_fail_originating_house, BillStatus.vetoed_override_fail_originating_senate,
BillStatus.vetoed_override_fail_second_house, BillStatus.vetoed_override_fail_second_senate,
BillStatus.enacted_signed, BillStatus.enacted_veto_override):
market_close = { 0: 1, 1: 1 } # originating chamber passed, other chamber passed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.passed_simpleres,):
market_close = { 0: 1 } # originating chamber passed
else:
# Don't know what to do in this state, so just keep whatever we had before.
continue
did_see_market = False
for market in Market.objects.filter(owner_content_type=bill_ct, owner_object_id=bill.id, isopen=True):
if int(market.owner_key) == market_key:
did_see_market = True
elif int(market.owner_key) in market_close:
print "Closing market:", market
market.close_market() # do this before the next check to make sure no trades slip in at the last moment
if Trade.objects.filter(outcome__market=market).exclude(account=bank).count() == 0:
print "\tDeleting market because the only trader was the bank."
market.delete() # TODO: Leaves the bank's account balance alone, which is not really good.
else:
for outcome in market.outcomes.all():
outcome.liquidate(1.0 if market_close[int(market.owner_key)] == int(outcome.owner_key) else 0.0)
else:
print "Don't know what to do with market:", market, market.owner_key
if not did_see_market and market_key != None:
starting_price = compute_prognosis(bill)["prediction"] / 100.0
# Create the market.
m = Market()
m.owner_object = bill
m.owner_key = market_key
m.name = market_name
m.volatility = 200.0 # large enough so that an integer number of shares can yield .01 precision in pricing
m.save()
ocmap = { }
for k, v in market_outcomes.items():
o = Outcome()
o.market = m
o.owner_key = k
o.name = v
o.save()
ocmap[k] = o
# The bank buys enough shares to make the starting price match our bill prognosis.
# Since we have two outcomes and the yes-price is exp(q1/b) / (exp(q1/b) + exp(q2/b))
# then....
if starting_price < .01: starting_price = .01
if starting_price > .99: starting_price = .99
shares = int(round(m.volatility * log(starting_price / (1.0 - starting_price))))
t = None
if starting_price > .5 and shares > 0:
t = Trade.place(bank, ocmap[1], shares, check_balance=False)
elif starting_price < .5 and shares < 0:
t = Trade.place(bank, ocmap[0], -shares, check_balance=False)
print "Created market", m
if t:
print "\twith", t.shares, "of", t.outcome
def handle(self, *args, **options):
bank = TradingAccount.get(
User.objects.get(id=settings.PREDICTIONMARKET_BANK_UID))
bill_ct = ContentType.objects.get_for_model(Bill)
# For every bill, make a market for its next major step and close any other markets.
for bill in Bill.objects.filter(congress=settings.CURRENT_CONGRESS):
market_key = None # current market to open
market_name = None # name of the market to open
market_outcomes = None # dict of outcome names
market_close = {
} # markets to close, key is market id and value is the key of the winning outcome
if bill.current_status in (BillStatus.introduced,
BillStatus.referred,
BillStatus.reported):
market_key = 0
market_name = "Will %s pass the %s?" % (
bill.display_number, bill.originating_chamber)
market_outcomes = {0: "No", 1: "Yes"}
market_close = {}
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.pass_over_house,
BillStatus.pass_over_senate):
market_key = 1
market_name = "Will %s pass the %s?" % (bill.display_number,
bill.opposite_chamber)
market_outcomes = {0: "No", 1: "Yes"}
market_close = {0: 1} # originating chamber passed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.pass_back_house,
BillStatus.pass_back_senate):
market_key = 2
market_name = "Will %s pass in identical form in the House and Senate?" % bill.display_number
market_outcomes = {0: "No", 1: "Yes"}
market_close = {
0: 1,
1: 1
} # originating chamber passed, other chamber passed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.fail_originating_house,
BillStatus.fail_originating_senate):
market_close = {0: 0} # originating chamber failed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.fail_second_house,
BillStatus.fail_second_senate):
market_close = {
0: 1,
1: 0
} # originating chamber passed, second chamber failed
elif bill.current_status in (
BillStatus.passed_constamend,
BillStatus.passed_concurrentres, BillStatus.passed_bill,
BillStatus.override_pass_over_house,
BillStatus.override_pass_over_senate,
BillStatus.vetoed_pocket,
BillStatus.vetoed_override_fail_originating_house,
BillStatus.vetoed_override_fail_originating_senate,
BillStatus.vetoed_override_fail_second_house,
BillStatus.vetoed_override_fail_second_senate,
BillStatus.enacted_signed,
BillStatus.enacted_veto_override):
market_close = {
0: 1,
1: 1
} # originating chamber passed, other chamber passed
elif bill.current_status in (BillStatus.passed_simpleres, ):
market_close = {0: 1} # originating chamber passed
else:
# Don't know what to do in this state, so just keep whatever we had before.
continue
did_see_market = False
for market in Market.objects.filter(owner_content_type=bill_ct,
owner_object_id=bill.id,
isopen=True):
if int(market.owner_key) == market_key:
did_see_market = True
elif int(market.owner_key) in market_close:
print "Closing market:", market
market.close_market(
) # do this before the next check to make sure no trades slip in at the last moment
if Trade.objects.filter(outcome__market=market).exclude(
account=bank).count() == 0:
print "\tDeleting market because the only trader was the bank."
market.delete(
) # TODO: Leaves the bank's account balance alone, which is not really good.
else:
for outcome in market.outcomes.all():
outcome.liquidate(
1.0 if market_close[int(market.owner_key)] ==
int(outcome.owner_key) else 0.0)
else:
print "Don't know what to do with market:", market, market.owner_key
if not did_see_market and market_key != None:
starting_price = compute_prognosis(bill)["prediction"] / 100.0
# Create the market.
m = Market()
m.owner_object = bill
m.owner_key = market_key
m.name = market_name
m.volatility = 200.0 # large enough so that an integer number of shares can yield .01 precision in pricing
m.save()
ocmap = {}
for k, v in market_outcomes.items():
o = Outcome()
o.market = m
o.owner_key = k
o.name = v
o.save()
ocmap[k] = o
# The bank buys enough shares to make the starting price match our bill prognosis.
# Since we have two outcomes and the yes-price is exp(q1/b) / (exp(q1/b) + exp(q2/b))
# then....
if starting_price < .01: starting_price = .01
if starting_price > .99: starting_price = .99
shares = int(
round(m.volatility * log(starting_price /
(1.0 - starting_price))))
t = None
if starting_price > .5 and shares > 0:
t = Trade.place(bank,
ocmap[1],
shares,
check_balance=False)
elif starting_price < .5 and shares < 0:
t = Trade.place(bank,
ocmap[0],
-shares,
check_balance=False)
print "Created market", m
if t:
print "\twith", t.shares, "of", t.outcome